The economy will remain low for a long time
The economy will remain low for a long time
Since this year, the PVC market in China has experienced two rounds of ups and downs, and the price fluctuation range is relatively large, but the price of PVC has been unable to exceed 6000 yuan/ton, and the demand has been in a depressed state for a long time. This situation is mainly caused by two factors, one is the supply and demand fundamental decision of the PVC industry itself, and the other is determined by the macro environment of the PVC industry. Recently we've been exported from supply, demand, maintenance, such as fundamentals to analyze, today we stand higher, the Angle of view to analyze the current PVC industry macro environment is really about.
Economic data just released in May, data showed industrial production in May that month recovered slightly to 6.1% over the previous year, the cumulative year-on-year growth and flat last month, also remained at 6.2%, over the declining trend. But the industrial added value represents the supply side, the monthly data will be affected by some disturbances, and the short-term economic fluctuation is to demand side, the current if want to confirm that the economic data appeared inflection point, we must be able to see the demand side has obvious tendency to improve. But so far, major demand data including exports, manufacturing investment, real estate investment and infrastructure investment still have some downward pressure, the economy is stable.
Real estate investment is not only an important economic data of China's demand side, but also an important factor affecting the order of PVC downstream products. Therefore, we will focus on the real estate situation.
Nearly two months of north guangzhou and other first-tier cities housing sales situation improved markedly, frequent discs as well as the "land Kings", real estate signs of improvement, but the differentiation is more serious, the third and fourth tier cities both prices and sales area is still in the negative. So there is still some uncertainty in the real estate market. In 2015, according to data from 1 to 5 month, the national new housing construction area of 503 million square meters, fell 16.0% year on year, at a 1 - narrowed 1.3% in April, in May the monthly new construction area of the building fell 12.8% year-on-year, 2.1% decline narrowed, significant monthly growth rate of 20.9%. In terms of investment, China's real estate development investment in the january-may period was 3.23 trillion yuan, up 5.1 percent year on year, and the growth rate was 0.9 percentage points lower than that of January to April. Investment growth continued a month-to-month retreat, suggesting that the companies remain relatively cautious about investing. In the third quarter, the market of large and medium-sized cities will continue to maintain a high level of prosperity, and the new start will continue to continue the current warming trend, and the new start will achieve a small increase in 2015.
Overall, despite the marginal improvement in economic data in May, local concerns remain, and the recovery of the bottom of the economy still needs some time to observe and confirm. While the main demand side is facing downward pressure, it is premature to assert that the current economy is stabilizing, and the economic probability of June will be back down from the high frequency data. The next two months will see continued economic growth and falling inflation. Therefore, in the context of the temporary improvement of the macro economy, the favorable fundamentals of PVC supply and demand have been wiped out, and the PVC market is not expected to improve significantly in June and July.
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