Plastic may strategy report: plastic cost demand is interwoven
Plastic may strategy report: plastic cost demand is interwoven
Plastic moves in April after the suppression Yang first, plastic main 1509 contract in early ten thousand yuan mark blocked, shock downward, to 9300 supported, crude oil market in the middle of an upward, significantly boost for plastics market, plastic breakthrough ten thousand yuan mark, along with money ing measures, plastic futures rose quickly.
Rising crude oil drives the cost end support stronger. In April, the oil market had the upper hand, with oil prices on a unilateral upward trend. The softening of Saudi oil diplomacy and calls for a non-opec production to stabilise the oil market have since improved. The saudis then bombed yemen and the situation in the Middle East continued to tense. Weak U.S. economic data, a slowdown in fed rate expectations and a prolonged weak dollar index. The number of drilling RIGS in the United States has declined for 20 consecutive weeks, and the production of crude oil has decreased frequently. In addition, the futures market continued to take long positions, with oil prices continuing to rise in April and oil prices in Europe and the United States hit a New Year high. This positive support, the price of domestic PE market continues to rise in April, although the market demand is weak, but the market price intention is strong.
The basic differential has been slow to return to normal at the end of the month. April plastic futures to maintain the premium status of spot, early as futures prices, widening of the basis level to months, main 1509 contract with the three major regional ex-factory price spread by early 346 to expand to 948 yuan/ton, and the market average price spread by early 506 yuan/ton to 1059 yuan/ton. Then as futures prices rebound, basis and began to fall, as of April 28th, 1509 futures contracts with the three major regional factory average price is 398 yuan/ton, and the market average price is 460 yuan/ton.
Agricultural film orders follow up limited, stop manufacturers increase. Agricultural film orders follow up limited, stop manufacturers increase. Factory purchasing insist on the main, according to order purchase, with use. At present, the demand of PE film is light, and the price of raw materials is on the high side, so the orders follow up, and the number of stop manufacturers increases further, and the rate of production of individual manufacturers is generally 1-3. The demand of land film continues to be weak, and the final stage of the north China region is very thin. The small factory in north China has been shut down and overhauled, and some of the large factories have been temporarily maintained at 5-9. The demand in northeast and Inner Mongolia is generally, and the rest of the region is basically over.
Maintenance equipment increased, inventory decreased. In April, PE has daqing petrochemical, lanzhou, dushanzi petrochemical, yangzi, pucheng clean energy and Shanghai device is advanced, the extension of early repair coal to resume production, current maintenance shutdown system involved production capacity of 2.538 million tons/year. This month, combined with previous maintenance equipment, total production capacity was 535.3 million tons, with a loss of 23.48 million tons, an increase of 103,000 tons from the previous month. There is more maintenance in the refining enterprise, the market supply is reduced, and the inventory pressure of petrochemical enterprises is not large. In addition to the market volatility in April, traders have been enthusiastic about the operation, and the terminal has been steadily replenishing the warehouse. The inventory of petrochemical enterprises has been on a downward trend.
Market outlook and investment opportunity tips. While the downstream demand will continue to be flat in May, the domestic petrochemical plant will continue to be partially serviced and the supply of market supply will be affected, and its supply and demand fundamentals are expected to remain stable. In addition, crude oil and monomer prices remain high, and petrochemicals are expected to remain highly motivated. However, because the demand is cold and clear, and the high delivery difficulty is bigger, the market transactions are afraid to release. Technical attention to 10500 first-line trading, if breakthrough, the upper space opens, otherwise prices will have to fall back.
